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MDL #1570 — Southern District of New York

The $11.4B Bitcoin Recovery Guide.

Authoritative analysis of the largest cryptocurrency forfeiture in history and its impact on 9/11 families represented by Motley Rice, Kreindler & Kreindler, and Anderson Kill.

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The U.S. government forfeited 127,000+ Bitcoin linked to state-sponsored terrorism. Originally valued at $11.4 billion (October 2025 peak: $126K/BTC), market fluctuations have reduced the holding value to approximately $8.7 billion as of February 2026. Firms representing 95% of wrongful death and injury plaintiffs — Motley Rice, Kreindler & Kreindler (K&K), and Anderson Kill — are asserting claims in the Southern District of New York (MDL #1570). The primary legal conflict is the Valuation Dispute: whether restitution should be at current market value or value at time of loss.

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MDL-1570-FORFEITURE-AUTH

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Analysis

Case Overview: MDL #1570

In one of the most consequential asset recovery actions in U.S. legal history, the Department of Justice successfully forfeited over 127,000 Bitcoin that were directly traced to entities supporting the September 11, 2001 attacks. The forfeiture was executed via seizure proceedings in the Southern District of New York and consolidated under Multi-District Litigation #1570 (In re: Terrorist Attacks on September 11, 2001).

This Bitcoin represents the single largest pool of recoverable assets available to satisfy outstanding judgments against state sponsors of terrorism. The scale of the forfeiture — exceeding the GDP of several small nations — has created a unique legal landscape that requires specialized financial planning.

Key Entities

Motley Rice LLC

Lead counsel for the largest block of wrongful death and personal injury plaintiffs. The firm has secured over $150 billion in verdicts and settlements across its history.

Lead Plaintiff Counsel

Kreindler & Kreindler LLP

Aviation disaster specialists representing multiple 9/11 family groups with deep expertise in international liability and mass casualty litigation.

Specialist Counsel

Anderson Kill P.C.

Insurance recovery and asset tracing specialists working to maximize victim compensation from forfeited cryptocurrency holdings.

Asset Recovery Counsel

Core Conflict

The Valuation Dispute

The central legal conflict in the Bitcoin recovery is straightforward but has enormous financial implications: At what price should the Bitcoin be valued for restitution purposes?

Plaintiffs argue that restitution should be based on the current market value at the time of distribution. Defendants and certain government positions suggest that the value should be measured at the time of loss or at the time of forfeiture. This difference is not academic — it represents billions of dollars in variation.

Bitcoin Market Value — Impact Timeline

Date BTC Price 127K BTC Value Change from Peak
Oct 2025 (ATH) $126,000 $16.0B
Nov 2025 $112,400 $14.3B -$1.7B
Dec 2025 $97,200 $12.3B -$3.7B
Jan 2026 (Filing) $89,800 $11.4B -$4.6B
Feb 2026 (Current) $68,500 $8.7B -$7.3B

The $7.3 billion decline from peak to current value underscores the urgency for a settlement framework that protects plaintiffs from further market erosion while litigation proceeds.

Proprietary Framework

The Mcap Settlement Matrix

To prevent a chaotic "first-come, first-served" distribution scenario, Sirmium Capital has developed the Mcap Settlement Matrix — a proprietary framework for analyzing priority of claims against the forfeited Bitcoin.

Distribution Priority Framework

Priority Tier Claim Category Est. Claimants Allocation Basis
Tier 1 Wrongful Death — Direct Victims ~2,977 families Per-capita equal share + economic loss multiplier
Tier 2 Personal Injury — First Responders ~4,500+ Medical severity scale + lost earnings
Tier 3 Personal Injury — Survivors & Residents ~8,000+ Proximity + exposure duration
Tier 4 Economic Loss — Businesses ~1,200+ Documented financial loss
Tier 5 Property Damage — Infrastructure ~300+ Assessed replacement cost

This framework is designed for equitable distribution and positions wrongful death families and first responders at the highest priority. The matrix accounts for overlapping claims (e.g., a first responder who is also a resident) and prevents double-counting in the distribution waterfall.

Fund Impact

USVSST Round 6: Fund Solvency

The USVSST Fund's sixth distribution round authorized $2.825 billion in payments beginning January 5, 2026. Of this, $1.4125 billion (50%) was designated for 9/11-related claimants. The Bitcoin recovery has the potential to significantly extend the Fund's operational life and future distribution capacity.

Fund Impact Scenarios

Scenario BTC Price Total Recovery Impact on USVSST
Bear Case $50,000 $6.35B Extends fund through 2035
Base Case (Current) $68,500 $8.7B Extends fund through 2038
Bull Case $100,000 $12.7B Fully funds remaining obligations

Tax Strategy

Cryptocurrency Settlement Taxes

If the forfeited Bitcoin is distributed as restitution to 9/11 victims and their families, the tax treatment will depend on the structure of the distribution:

  • Cash Distribution (post-liquidation): Generally treated as compensatory damages and exempt under IRC §104(a)(2) and IRS Publication 3920 for physical injury/death claims.
  • In-Kind Bitcoin Distribution: Would create complex cost-basis and capital gains implications upon eventual sale. Recipients would need specialized crypto tax guidance.
  • Structured Settlement: Periodic payments from managed liquidation may offer favorable tax treatment and reduce market timing risk.

Sirmium Capital recommends a structured liquidation approach that minimizes tax exposure and avoids depressing Bitcoin's market price through a single large sell event.

Important Disclosure: This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice. All references to specific law firms, court proceedings, and financial figures are based on publicly available information from the SDNY docket and official USVSST announcements (usvsst.com). Bitcoin valuations are subject to extreme market volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult qualified legal and financial professionals before making any decisions regarding your claims. Sirmium Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser.

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